14Feb

Why Real Madrid will win this season’s Champions League

by Ethan Dean-Richards

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It seems as though the return of the Champions League is close enough for people to remember that the competition exists. But the sense of anticipation probably isn’t palpable yet because the hype-machine has been working on other things. Those FA Cup fixtures definitely won’t sell themselves and the case of Luis Suarez may never have enough exposure.

But it might also be that we all know who’s going to win the thing. Boos rang down from the Bernabeu a week before José Mourinho took Real Madrid seven points clear in La Liga – did the mob responsible not realise that their team will be league and Champions League champions by the end of May?

The usual kingpins, save for a humiliated Manchester United, will contest the round of 16 this week and next: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Milan, Inter and Arsenal are your teams to choose from for the win, except for the professional pedants, obviously, who always have a wider range of choices in these matters. Yet what stands out most of all about each of them this time around is weakness rather than strength.

Barcelona, the connoisseurs’ champions, appear to be in trouble. While it would be foolhardy to write off a team with so much star quality to hand, they are not the team they were. Or rather, they are exactly the team they were: stagnation, among other things, has hit Pep Guardiola’s side. The strength of Barcelona’s philosophy has won them two European titles in three years; now, as enough teams have realised, leaving Madrid 10 points clear in La Liga has made them look predictable.

The English sides face similar problems with transition. Arsenal, bereft of Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri, have recovered form after that early season stumble, but with Jack Wilshere suffering another injury setback they remain short of quality. Chelsea, finally attempting to free themselves from Mourinho’s legacy, have found that although men like Frank Lampard could do with replacing, that does not necessarily mean that their replacements are at the club yet. Both sides are out of the Premier League title race well before the final sprint.

Meanwhile, Bayern, Milan and Inter have no such freedom. Embroiled in battles for supremacy in their domestic competitions, only Inter are far enough back to think about prioritising Europe, and their squad wants more than just a Claudio Ranieri makeover before they can be taken seriously. Bayern, who rely on Arjen Robben’s flimsy limbs, are involved in a three-way chase at the top of the Bundesliga and Milan, who have still not shaken the golden oldies tag, are just two points clear of Juventus, who have games in hand, in Serie A. Europe must be thought of as the distraction for this lot.

Which leaves Real Madrid. With La Liga in the bag, goalscoring records broken and an outstanding squad, their problems should consist of deciding whether Kaka, Di Maria or Ozil gets the start. And we’d all be convinced of that had Barcelona not made Mourinho look a wuss in front of all his friends by tearing through his defensive blockade in the infamous first leg of their Copa del Rey match up. The game, ending 2-1, offered the idea that Barcelona still have it over Madrid and the aftermath saw the fundamental disagreements within their team exposed: apparently, Sergio Ramos doubts Mourinho’s ability as a coach because he hasn’t played at the highest level, which is clever.

But what separates this weakness from that of the rest is that it hasn’t been allowed to define Madrid. It might have, had Mourinho’s reaction to another defeat by Barcelona not been to avoid a reaction: no players were punished for their dissent, at least publically, and while the press decided that Madrid couldn’t beat Barcelona, the message from the coach was that they would try again.

They did, and they drew 2-2 in Camp Nou, and had a winning goal disallowed, after being two down. The world watched, wondering how Madrid could ever recover – thinking that they couldn’t – and they did. Then they moved seven points clear of Barcelona in the league. Then they moved 10.

As the Champions League resumes this week, Mourinho can be more confident than any of his rivals because much of his work has already been done. What Barcelona did to him has already become past tense, whereas the others mingling around in the draw are still looking for the answers to their difficult questions. Let’s see what Madrid do to CSKA Moscow, then let’s see how they handle Barcelona if the time comes.

Related articles:

Video: Man City to “look at” Mourinho if Mancini blows the league

Mike Calvin: Lionel Messi – the numbers man

Video: “Barcelona are the finest football machine you will ever see”

Kieran Canning: Real Madrid must attack Barcelona in El Clásico to win La Liga

Alexander Netherton: Improved Real Madrid primed to overhaul stuttering Barcelona

Ethan Dean-Richards: Are Barcelona football’s biggest hypocrites?

Read more of Ethan Dean-Richard’s different take on the world of football at The FCF, where Surreal Football now resides. You can follow Surreal Football on Twitter @SurrealFootball

Follow Life’s a Pitch on Twitter @BTLifesapitch

Watch Champions League football live on BT Vision:
Bayer Leverkusen v Barcelona, live 7pm, 14 February, Sky Sports 2
Zenit St Petersburg v Benfica, live 4:55pm, 15 February, Sky Sports 2
AC Milan v Arsenal, live 7:30pm, 15 February, ITV1
CSKA Moscow v Real Madrid, live 4:55pm, 21 February, Sky Sports 2
Napoli v Chelsea, live 7pm, 21 February, Sky Sports 2
FC Basel v Bayern Munich, live 7pm, 22 February, Sky Sports 2
Marseille v Inter Milan, live 7:30pm, 22 February, ITV1

Not got BT Vision? Find out how to get it

More live football fixtures on BT Vision